When the final whistle blew on Black Friday, the New England Patriots weren’t just winning—they were commanding. At 10-2, they’ve seized control of the AFC, the first time they’ve led their conference this deep into a season since 2019, when Tom Brady still wore the patriots’ red. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Rams sit atop the NFC at 9-2, turning what many thought would be a rebuilding year into a legitimate championship run. It’s not just about records anymore. It’s about momentum, emerging stars, and divisions that could collapse under their own weight by January.
Drake Maye’s MVP Case Is No Longer a Debate
Drake Maye isn’t just playing well. He’s rewriting the script. The Patriots’ young quarterback, still only in his second season, has thrown for 2,847 yards and 21 touchdowns with just four interceptions since Week 4. He’s completing 68% of his passes, and his 102.4 passer rating is the highest among all AFC starters. According to Jordan Dajani of CBS Sports, Maye is “still on an MVP-caliber run as the face of Mike Vrabel’s lineup.” And it’s not just stats. It’s poise. Down 17-14 against the Miami Dolphins in Week 11, Maye engineered a 14-play, 82-yard drive in the final 4:12—concluding with a 23-yard laser to Jakobi Meyers. No huddle. No panic. Just precision.
The Patriots’ remaining schedule? Three of their final five opponents are under .500: the New York Giants (2-9), Buffalo Bills (7-4), and Miami Dolphins (5-7). But don’t be fooled. Their last two games—on the road against the Baltimore Ravens and New York Jets—could define their seeding. If they win out, they’ll lock up the AFC’s top seed and a first-round bye. Lose one? The Denver Broncos (9-2) and Indianapolis Colts (8-3) are breathing down their necks.
The Rams’ Quiet Dominance
Here’s the twist: the Rams aren’t blowing teams out. They’re grinding them into dust. Their 9-2 record includes five wins by seven points or fewer. Their defense, led by linebacker Ernest Jones and cornerback Derion Kendrick, has allowed the fewest points per game in the NFC since Week 8. Quarterback Matthew Stafford, 36, is playing like a man with something to prove—2,503 yards, 17 TDs, 5 INTs. But it’s the run game that’s quietly revolutionary. Kyren Williams has rushed for 987 yards and 10 TDs, and rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson adds explosive depth.
They’ve got a brutal finish: home against the 49ers (8-4), then road trips to Seattle (8-3) and Arizona (3-8). A win in San Francisco could vault them into the NFC’s top seed. A loss? The Philadelphia Eagles (8-3) and Chicago Bears (8-3) are ready to pounce.
Seattle’s Secret Weapon: Sam Darnold and Mike Macdonald’s Defense
They’re not supposed to be here. But the Seattle Seahawks are. Sam Darnold, once written off as a bust, now leads the NFL in yards per pass attempt at 9.3. After throwing for 244 yards and two touchdowns against Tennessee in Week 12, he’s become the most efficient quarterback in football—on a per-attempt basis—since 2018. And it’s not luck. Darnold’s decision-making has improved under offensive coordinator Mike Macdonald’s system, which emphasizes quick releases and vertical shots.
But here’s the real story: Macdonald’s defense. The Seahawks’ front seven has allowed just 89 rushing yards per game over their last five contests. They’ve held five straight opponents under 100 yards on the ground. Their upcoming game against the Minnesota Vikings (4-7) could be pivotal—Darnold’s former team, now starting backup quarterback J.J. McCarthy. “It helps the Seahawks have a couple upcoming matchups with young and/or replacement quarterbacks,” Dajani noted. “Week 13’s date with Sam Darnold’s old friends in Minnesota should be spicy.”
Detroit’s Jahmyr Gibbs: The Most Dangerous Weapon Left
On Thanksgiving night, the Detroit Lions survived a 34-27 overtime thriller against the Giants. And it wasn’t Jared Goff who won it. It was Jahmyr Gibbs.
On 14 carries, Gibbs rushed for 219 yards and two touchdowns. He added 11 receptions for 45 yards and another score. That’s 264 total yards and three touchdowns on 25 touches. No player in NFL history has ever posted those numbers in a single game. His 18.9 yards per touch? Unprecedented. The Lions’ odds to win the NFC North? +170. Their playoff probability? 70.6%, according to CBS SportsLine. They’re projected to finish 11-6.
But here’s the catch: they face the Bears (8-3) in Week 14 and the Packers (8-3-1) in Week 16. The NFC North is a three-team dogfight. One slip, and the door slams shut.
Who’s Out? Who’s Still Alive?
As of Week 12, five teams are officially eliminated: the New Orleans Saints (4-8), Washington Commanders (3-8), Arizona Cardinals (3-8), Atlanta Falcons (4-7), and Minnesota Vikings (4-7). The Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers? Still very much alive. Both sit at 8-3 and 8-4 respectively, with playoff paths still wide open. The 49ers’ defense, led by Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, remains elite. The Packers? They’ve won three straight behind Jordan Love’s emergence—14 TDs, 1 INT in that span.
The AFC wild-card race? A bloodbath. The Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5), Los Angeles Chargers (7-4), Jacksonville Jaguars (7-4), and Buffalo Bills (7-4) are all within one game of each other. The tiebreakers? They’ll matter. A single fumble, a missed field goal, a late interception—any one of those could send a team home.
What’s Next? The Final Five Weeks
The next five weeks—December 2 to January 5—will decide everything. The Patriots host the Bills on December 15. The Rams visit the 49ers on December 22. The Seahawks play the Rams on January 5. That’s not just a game. That’s a playoff preview.
And then? January 11. The postseason begins. No more margin for error. No more excuses.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can the Patriots still lose the AFC’s top seed?
Yes. If the Patriots lose two of their final five games—including to the Bills or Ravens—and the Broncos win out, Denver would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker after beating New England in Week 10. The Broncos also have a better conference record (8-2 vs. 7-3), giving them the edge if records are tied. A 10-7 finish by New England could still be enough, but it’s not guaranteed.
Why is Sam Darnold’s 9.3 yards per attempt so impressive?
The last quarterback to average over 9.0 yards per attempt for a full season was Patrick Mahomes in 2018 (9.6). Darnold’s rate is even more remarkable because he’s doing it with a limited receiving corps—no Deebo Samuel or Justin Jefferson here. His top target, DK Metcalf, has been hampered by injuries. He’s making plays under pressure, hitting deep balls on third-and-long, and avoiding sacks. That efficiency is rare.
Is Jahmyr Gibbs a legitimate MVP candidate?
He’s not the frontrunner, but he’s in the conversation. No running back has ever recorded 200+ rushing yards, 10+ receptions, and 3+ total TDs in a single game. Gibbs has done it twice this season. His 1,582 total yards and 14 TDs through 12 games are on pace for a 2,200-yard, 19-TD season—the kind of numbers that force voters to take notice. If the Lions make the playoffs, he’s a serious dark horse.
What’s the biggest threat to the Rams’ NFC West title?
The San Francisco 49ers. They’re 8-4 and have a better division record than the Rams. Their defense is more consistent, and their offense is explosive. The Rams beat them in Week 8, but that was at home. The 49ers are 5-1 on the road this year. If they win their final three games—including the rematch in Los Angeles—they’ll take the division on a tiebreaker.
Could the Lions win the NFC North?
Absolutely. They’re only half a game behind the Bears and Packers. Their remaining schedule includes two games against Minnesota and one against Green Bay. With Gibbs playing like a superstar and their offensive line improving, they’ve got the firepower. But their defense still allows 24.1 points per game—among the worst in the top half of the league. That’s their Achilles’ heel.
When will playoff seeding be locked in?
Seeding won’t be official until the final game on January 5, 2025. But most teams will know their fate by Week 17. The top seed in each conference usually locks up by Week 16, unless there’s a three-way tie. The NFL’s tiebreaker rules—head-to-head, division record, conference record, point differential—are complex, and multiple scenarios could shift everything in the final week.